Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, June 17, 2000
Roberto Suro and Steven Mufson

A new report to Congress warns that the Clinton administration's plan for a national missile defense system is based on uncertain assessments of the potential threats and is vulnerable to delays and escalating costs.

The General Accounting Office, in a report that circulated on Capitol Hill this week but has yet to be made public, also concluded that it will be difficult to know whether the missile shield will function properly during an attack because of strict limitations on the Pentagon's ability to test the system of powerful targeting radars, interceptor missiles and high-speed computers.

"The GAO report raises serious concerns," said Sen. Daniel K. Akaka (D-Hawaii), who requested the report. "As a longtime supporter of national missile defense, I believe that the increase in performance risks because of flight-test restrictions and uncertainties regarding the nature of the threat need to be addressed sooner rather than later in the testing phase."

Under a schedule pressed by Republican leaders in Congress, the Pentagon hopes to have 100 interceptor missiles based in Alaska by 2007, with the first 20 ready to fire by 2005. The Pentagon concurred with all of the GAO's findings and has often stated that the development plan is highly accelerated and thus highly risky. As it proceeds on an emergency basis to defend against potential threats by such "rogue nations" as North Korea and Iran, the Pentagon has said the deadlines require testing and refining the system even as it is being built.

"Right now we appear to be pushing the envelope of our technical capabilities," Akaka concluded.

The next evaluation of those capabilities will come after a July 7 flight test over the Pacific in which a "kill vehicle" will attempt to collide with an incoming warhead high in space. The results of that test will weigh heavily in a decision President Clinton is to make this fall on whether to go forward with construction of the system.

The GAO report analyzes the findings of studies conducted by the Pentagon and government agencies. The technological uncertainties of the system greatly increase the prospects for delays, and the GAO concluded that each month of delay in the program could increase its costs by $124 million.

Questioning the rationale behind the system, the GAO found that intelligence estimates of the threat posed by rogue nations are "uncertain." The 100-missile system is designed to handle no more than 20 incoming warheads of fairly simple design, but the GAO report said, "The intelligence community is uncertain about what countermeasures a rogue nation would employ in attempting to defeat a missile defense system." The Pentagon acknowledges that sophisticated countermeasures, such as multiple decoys, could make it much more difficult for a kill vehicle to find its target.

© 2000 The Washington Post Company